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Standard User WWWombat
(knowledge is power) Sun 27-Nov-16 01:50:29
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CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


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In September, CDS reported to Devon Council that BT had "passed" (THP) 316,000 premises with NGA fibre, of which 263,000 had superfast speeds. That left BT another 15,000 to reach the phase 1 target.

In the next meeting earlier in November, CDS reported in writing with broadly the same figures.

However, the verbal report to the council (in the video) had an interesting excerpt!
Streamed video here.

That reported a THP of 320,000, and 266,000 at superfast speeds. Just 12,000 to go.

BUT...

then dropped the bombshell that some of these premises were outside the intervention area, and didn't count. CDS "are requiring that BT connect an extra 20,000 premises to ensure" that they reach the phase 1 target.

BT say they'll meet the target, but whistling up an extra 20,000 premises in 6 weeks would be amazing.

There's problems with Airband, too, just to share the blame around a bit.
Administrator MrSaffron
(staff) Sun 27-Nov-16 11:58:22
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: WWWombat] [link to this post]
 
Since they chose the name CDS - which I cannot be the only one who constantly thinks Cornwall/Devon/Somerset when it is not things were always going to be a mess.

On 22,000 in 6 weeks, a lot depends on whether those are C in the final stages of commissioning or FTTP.

The constant delivery to date xyz and with strict value for money has meant projects were always going to favour VDSL2.

As for fixed wireless, done right and with enough masts and a pathway to cope with take-up and expansion it can tick the superfast box - but all too often usage limits mean you end up with a two tier system i.e. choice of old slow ADSL but download lots, or fast wireless and use up your months allowance in a week or so.

Once wireless providers (fixed and mobile) can do unlimited consistently then can beat VDSL2 hands down.

The author of the above post is a thinkbroadband staff member. It may not constitute an official statement on behalf of thinkbroadband.
Standard User WWWombat
(knowledge is power) Sun 27-Nov-16 12:58:08
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: MrSaffron] [link to this post]
 
In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
Since they chose the name CDS - which I cannot be the only one who constantly thinks Cornwall/Devon/Somerset when it is not things were always going to be a mess.


It is always "entertaining" to watch. Like watching a car crash.

And ever since the phase 2 debacle, and Devon's insistence that CDS report - in person - into one of the scrutiny committees every couple of months, that entertainment has been highly visible. Especially as those meetings are streamed/recorded.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
On 22,000 in 6 weeks, a lot depends on whether those are C in the final stages of commissioning or FTTP.


There sound to be quite a few cabinets still going through the process.

I guess it mostly depends whether BT were expecting to have to find 20,000 premises in the last few weeks of the project, or knew that it always had them in hand.

But it raises a good question about the statistics presented so far: when CDS (and BT) have presented SFBB speeds for N thousand premises, have they always known that some of them don't really count?

And in what way don't they count? Are those properties ones that now have SFBB speeds from BT when they already had speeds from VM? Or are they places that were slow, but CDS had inadvertently missed them out of the intervention area?

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
As for fixed wireless, done right and with enough masts and a pathway to cope with take-up and expansion it can tick the superfast box - but all too often usage limits mean you end up with a two tier system i.e. choice of old slow ADSL but download lots, or fast wireless and use up your months allowance in a week or so.


I think that the Airband problem is, at least partially, that they are behind on some of their critical masts. It seems these are ones that act as part of the point-point chain of backhaul links.

The capacity of that backhaul is the important key to your problem ... and the existence of a critical chain (rather than fibre backhaul to each one) suggests this will be one of the early bottlenecks.

We'll see down the line...

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
Once wireless providers (fixed and mobile) can do unlimited consistently then can beat VDSL2 hands down.


And they all lived happily ever after...


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Administrator MrSaffron
(staff) Sun 27-Nov-16 15:45:39
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: WWWombat] [link to this post]
 
The problem with SFBB and presenting, is that until someone orders a service even if its Openreach there will be unknowns in terms of which premises can and cannot get it. The interventions seen in phase II projects in other counties point towards infill cabinets going in pretty much where our data suggests they should be in terms of getting maximum premises per £ up to superfast. For me given the much lower visibility of what the wireless providers are doing, much harder to do that right, i.e. Lincolnshire and Norfolk simple mast plots will be pretty right, but the topography of Devon and Somerset is highly variable.

I get this frustration thrown at me sometimes, when I give explanations that are not black and white, i.e. while your data science may have no flaws, the real world always throws in the unexpected.

Obviously 20,000 premises if it actually is that is an issue, but council seems to be ensuring that the result from Openreach and BT Group as a whole will turn into a slow ponderous citation of contract rules and only doing what they are obliged to do. Or putting it another way, suspect Devon and Somerset may not be at the forefront of any G.fast or wider FTTP roll-out.

Now that would be nothing to worry about if it was known that a significant of FTTP was coming as part of phase II via a known entity.

One thought that come to me, based on what other projects have said, their reports from BT Group are every quarter, so it may be that last quarter was down somewhat and next quarter will just scrap in. A lot depends on what the council is doing in terms of checking what BT Group is reporting.

No one from either side has come chasing me on any opinions for various areas in CDS area yet.

The author of the above post is a thinkbroadband staff member. It may not constitute an official statement on behalf of thinkbroadband.
Administrator MrSaffron
(staff) Sun 27-Nov-16 15:48:39
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: MrSaffron] [link to this post]
 
To add - this may have occurred in other counties of course, but with less animosity and thus was sorted out during the gap between phase I and phase II, i.e. teams doing the final finishing touches to delayed cabinets

The author of the above post is a thinkbroadband staff member. It may not constitute an official statement on behalf of thinkbroadband.
Standard User WWWombat
(knowledge is power) Sun 27-Nov-16 17:09:42
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: MrSaffron] [link to this post]
 
In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
The problem with SFBB and presenting, is that until someone orders a service even if its Openreach there will be unknowns in terms of which premises can and cannot get it.


Very much so. There are mistakes in the database, so it does have an impact.

But how much?

As far as BDUK projects go, the only time the speed-estimates matter are when they are wrong in a way that moves people across the 24Mbps threshold (or the 30Mbps one). So, even if there is 10% of the database wrong (IMO an over-estimate), it likely only matters to the 10-15% of premises around the threshold - so around 1-1.5% of the intervention area premises.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
For me given the much lower visibility of what the wireless providers are doing, much harder to do that right, i.e. Lincolnshire and Norfolk simple mast plots will be pretty right, but the topography of Devon and Somerset is highly variable.


Both physical topography and network topography make it harder to predict the wireless behaviour.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
I get this frustration thrown at me sometimes, when I give explanations that are not black and white, i.e. while your data science may have no flaws, the real world always throws in the unexpected.


The trick here is trying to figure out the bounds of the inaccuracy.

The polls in the American election had this problem, where 538 tried to explain dealing with the uncertainty.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
Obviously 20,000 premises if it actually is that is an issue, but council seems to be ensuring that the result from Openreach and BT Group as a whole will turn into a slow ponderous citation of contract rules and only doing what they are obliged to do. Or putting it another way, suspect Devon and Somerset may not be at the forefront of any G.fast or wider FTTP roll-out.


The enmity comes over in the verbal reports in the council meetings. It's an interesting question whether they end up "punished" for it (like Chelsea, was it?)

In reporting about the phase 2 tendering process (about which they can say almost nothing, for fear of wrecking the process), there is an air of "gloating" about how free and open the information will be this time. There is an expectation that they will know *for sure* the status of every individual property at day 1.

Of note is the verbal report about the status of the the clawback money. CDS report that they will spend it under the terms of the phase 1 contract, but only after phase 2 has been sorted out - so they will know what the remaining white areas are.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
Now that would be nothing to worry about if it was known that a significant of FTTP was coming as part of phase II via a known entity.


Absolutely. CDS are aiming at trying to have the work done by the end of 2017 as much as possible (and "by 2019" certainly), so that raises a question about what can be achieved in less than 12 months.

They say they'll know in December.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
One thought that come to me, based on what other projects have said, their reports from BT Group are every quarter, so it may be that last quarter was down somewhat and next quarter will just scrap in. A lot depends on what the council is doing in terms of checking what BT Group is reporting.


All the previous reports to the council gave comfortably-above-target numbers for THP and SF; no mention of any issues. The last quarter (to Sept 2016) was no difference, but it was indeed slowing somewhat.

The first, and only, indication of the 20,000 came in the verbal report in mid-November. Even the written report that fed into the meeting made no mention.

More surprisingly, none of the council members asked any questions about it. We have no idea whether this is a late shift in reporting from BT, or a last-minute ambush by CDS over numbers they've known about internally for a while.

The verbal report is clear on the direction: It is "We are requiring...", not "BT are reporting..."

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
No one from either side has come chasing me on any opinions for various areas in CDS area yet.


A little hunkering-down going on?
Standard User WWWombat
(knowledge is power) Sun 27-Nov-16 17:12:13
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: MrSaffron] [link to this post]
 
In reply to a post by MrSaffron:
To add - this may have occurred in other counties of course, but with less animosity and thus was sorted out during the gap between phase I and phase II, i.e. teams doing the final finishing touches to delayed cabinets


That's pretty much what happened in North Yorkshire.

There was a minor delay (seemingly with copper-rearrangement manpower); the LA exacted a "penalty" where BT agreed to complete a few cabinets that would have dropped out of the commercial coverage due to extra costs from power.
Standard User WWWombat
(knowledge is power) Thu 12-Jan-17 22:15:20
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Re: CDS - Phase 1 problem-ish


[re: WWWombat] [link to this post]
 
In reply to a post by WWWombat:
BT say they'll meet the target, but whistling up an extra 20,000 premises in 6 weeks would be amazing.


There was another meeting this week.

The written report was that BT had under 2,000 premises left. The verbal report indicated 10,000 premises. There was no mention of the previous bombshell, or if this explained the 8k difference.

As there seems to be around 60,000 premises with sub-24Mbps NGA speeds available, you wonder whether those 3dB-SNRM trials will magically fix things.
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