I did post my thoughts in this early, and I may have come across as anti next gen console but was just my viewpoint.
That is I buy consoles for the content, not the hardware, in the past powerful consoles have failed because lack of content, neo geo prime example of that, powerful for its time, but pricing and lack of content meant it failed.
There is far too much content on my xbox360 digital account and physical games I own to 'not buy a replacement'. If the xbox one was BC, I would have very likely brought a xbox one now instead of a replacement 360, the lack of BC seems a really dumb decision from both sides in my opinion. BC removes the pressure of needing new content as then all old content still works. But its down to greed, as they will relaunch classic 360/ps3 games in defenitive versions on these new consoles at some point to make more money. The argument that BC adds too much cost and as such will reduce sales I udnerstand, to me the solution would be to see 2 versions of the console, one with BC and one without, then let the market decide.
I think developers are been cautious with next gen for a few reasons, the wii-u's failure will be making them passive over the next gen consoles, there is an obvious higher cost of development as next gen console owners will probably be fussy about graphics detail which adds to development cost, can see here how older consoles still selling.
There is still very large userbases for previous gen larger than next gen so games will still be made for those platforms from 3rd party publishers. In fact sony win here, they supported the ps2 right up until last year it was still been made. Whilst microsoft's reputation isnt so good, they dropped the original xbox very quickly after the launch of the 360.
Indie developers who published their games on the xbox marketplace, I wonder how they feel that their games cannot be sold to xbox one users unless they develop a new version? will they be happy about that?
My early prediction was that pn the ps4 and xbox1 that FPS would thrive, sports would thrive and aside from the odd exception such as gTA games and final fantasy games, other genres will suffer, ironically next gen is clearly going to help PC gaming as now PC ports will be better quality due to the same x86 architecture and the higher spec of the consoles, there is also quite a few console gamers who have got a PC now as they have got sick of the console marketing practices.
New games will come for sure, there is a lag right now as its within a year of launch, but I think low budget titles and non FPS/sports games will decline significantly.