Back in 2013, the BSG published a report that showed demand in 2023 to be 19Mbps for the median user and 38Mbps for the top 1%.
It seems that BT Research spent some time updating that model last year, feeding in updates related to UHDTV, OS downloads, console downloads. And modelling forward to both 2023 and 2033.
Their report can be found here:
Anticipating Household Demand for Peak Bandwidth
It includes estimations for the TV viewing types over time, UHD TV takeup, and content resolution choice (lagging TV capability by 8 years).
The headline results for 2023 don't actually change, but the needs for the rest of the top 30% of users have increased by 3-4Mbps to around 30Mbps.
The new results for 2033 show
- The bottom quartile figure is around 15Mbps, little different from 2023
- The median figure is 45-50Mbps. The increase is for console/iOS downloads
- The upper quartile figure is 55Mbps
- The 90th percentile figure is 58Mbps
- The top 1% is 95-100Mbps.
They then play with the model to show different outcomes. One of the most striking is, for example, making TV "all IP". That change increases the needs for the least demanding premises from 10-15Mbps to 15-20Mbps, but makes no difference to the most demanding premises.
Amongst the "playing" with the model, the outcomes that have the biggest overall demands come from changes to gaming downloads. The could alter demand for the median to 150Mbps or to the top 5% to 1Gbps.