Analysis Mason did a report on this, I think for the government so it should be readily available online. It gave suggested coverage based on various % of the population to be covered. It would be interesting to compare its predictions for 66% coverage with those areas where FTTC coverage has already been announced to see if there are any/many differences.
Brilliant - thanks for that. I managed to find 2 interesting documents....
The first I found was a discussion on rollout of FTTP GPON technology
for Ofcom. For *this* thread, on which cities will get fibre, appendix B is most useful: It mentions their "Geotyping
", which is their way of classifying the different coverage areas within the UK. It takes the "large urban area" model I used in my earlier post, but overlays it with exchange location. It also takes exchange size into account.
I think this will give us a better model for predicting which exchanges will get fibre.
I'll read this a little more, and come back with a better predictive model for which exchanges are likely to get converted.
The second document is a report on the cost of rollout of fibre (including both FTTC and FTTP)
. I found this from references in the first.
This goes into further depth on the "geotypes", so includes categories for 100% of UK premises (a total of 27 million).
At a quick glance, it provides a great view of why BT have targetted 67% for now, and why I suspect they'll get a good chunk of the next 20% once subsidies are taken into account.
There is one great quote in there: "... that the fixed costs of deploying new infrastructure far outweigh the variable costs. This means that the cost per home connected is highly dependent on the level of take-up."
That sentence alone probably explains why Infinity is priced at a level to attract people - both back from Virgin, and as a no-brainer upgrade from existing service.
What may people seem to ignore when querying why their area has not yet been included is the small issue of manpower....
Not me. I think manpower is one of the crucial issues. And I think it hits in many subtle ways - probably including core installation, in-house installation, and even targetting of marketing efforts.