Progress report on Superfast North Yorkshire - November 2014

Apparently, the much awaited progress report on Superfast North Yorkshire was presented to a meeting of the Executive of North Yorkshire County Council held on Tuesday 18 November 2014.

There are plenty of details in the report relating to progress on Phases 1, 2 and 3, the recent Open Market Review, FTTRN, the Government funded Airwave trial, funding issues and so forth, but a number of fundamental questions remain unanswered.

The link to the report is below, but this appears to be a temporary link as the County Council 'online democracy system is currently undergoing maintenance'.


http://www.northyorks.gov.uk/media/29861/Exec---addi...

Does anyone have a clear insight into how all this might impact on the 2Mbps Universal Service Commitment?

Grrrr

I was going to go along when they presented this... but there was no agenda published for that meeting!

Impact will only be clear as and when people actually buy into the new services offered in the areas.

USC upgrades are NOT automatic.

Reading report now

Hmmm.

So the biggest things to report, on first read-through, are:

- That FTTRN is delayed - both in trial, and in full deployment - though we now know where the trial is located (Ulshaw, Leyburn)

The reason appears to be the cost of power; the example given shows that reverse power (from end user) is not part of the architecture, that local power (described as "1:1" and used in the trial) is costly. The example reports that the problem could be solved by sharing power amongst a number of FTTRN nodes - which could indicate it being forward-fed from the cabinet or somewhere on a shared spine out from the cabinet.

- That the end of phase 1 is delayed into 2015. Reason: engineering staff competent at the copper re-arrangement needed for EO lines - which is becoming a national issue.

- That phase 2 is delayed into 2016. Reason: A knock-on effect from phase 1, and more of the same resource issues.

- That phase 3 (SEP) should not commit to fibre-based (ie BT) funding as yet. The average subsidy per home is getting too high; if spent on fibre-based solution (FTTRN or FTTP), the budget would only cover 1% of the county's homes, not the expected 5%.

- York is leaving the SFNY project. This was expected, with their plans becoming aligned with the West Yorkshire groups recently.

- The Airwave pilot (for the innovation fund) is given a location (Esk valley & West Witton); details suggest the trial is more about providing wholesale backhaul for WISPs to use.

- Takeup is running at 20%, and is at 25% for cabinets that have been running for 15 months. Projected to be at 30% by March 2015.

Centrally, BDUK appear to be working out how to get takeup to 50%.

- Within the commercial rollout, 177,000 properties are counted as getting superfast speeds, with 8,000 getting non-superfast speeds. That's 95% of the coverage getting SF speeds.

Overall, the report feels like NY is heading towards wireless for the final portion. I suspect that a key link in the chain (here and nationally) will be getting a wholesale backhaul solution that the main ISPs hook up to (ie enabling service through Sky, TalkTalk and even BT)

We have our own tracking of course for the various projects and so far the gap between fibre and superfast is wider in North Yorkshire than elsewhere. It is a challenging area and hard to also track as EO cabinets are hard to discover and probably explains our difference in the figures.

The Airwave is interesting, but a risk of Airwave walking away if long term it does not look commercially viable is there.

In reply to a post by RuralWire:

Does anyone have a clear insight into how all this might impact on the 2Mbps Universal Service Commitment?

NY haven't once given the USC portion a priority over the superfast portion.

For phase 2, NY took the stance that the extended SF coverage for phase 2 would allow them to re-allocate some of the USC budget (£2m out of the USC total of £5m) - implicitly putting the USC phase toward the end of phase 2, instead of the end of phase 1. At the time they made this decision, that would have moved it from Q3 2014 to Q4 2015.

In the report you linked, they seem open to delaying the USC phase again - if it lets them buy more SF coverage. However, because they effectively put the phase 3 decisions on hold, the USC phase hasn't yet moved beyond the end of phase 2.

But they also reported that phase 2 would now go on from Jan 2015 to Dec 2016 - and the USC portion is likely to be at the very end.

Given the report's emphasis on wireless for the final 5-10% (remembering that the final 1%, 3,800 properties, are allowed to be pushed over to satellite), and SFNY's new definition of "Hiqh Quality Broadband" (10Mbps+), I think they will continue to push the USC phase as late as they possibly can.

On the plus side... the USC portion is a commitment within their contracts to BT, though it is obviously a flexible condition whenever they re-negotiate further funding. As soon as they stop giving extra contracts to BT, and start buying wireless connectivity elsewhere, the BT contract will solidify, and USC coverage will have to be put in place.

Perhaps the labour plan of 2 Mbps first, and then a second project for superfast after that might have pleased people more, but might in 2010/2011 been more problematic in terms of state aid.

i.e. spending to get to 2 Mbps, then another wave to boost to superfast very soon after may have made EU approval slower.

In reply to a post by MrSaffron:

We have our own tracking of course for the various projects and so far the gap between fibre and superfast is wider in North Yorkshire than elsewhere.

I agree that will be the case - but more down to the un-commercial (more rural) areas, rather than the commercial ones.

I finally found the equivalent numbers for the intervention area, as exists right now: 151k premises passed, of which 130k can get superfast speeds - which amounts to 85%. A lot lower percentage.

However, there is one thing about those figures that intrigues me. Those numbers say that, right now, there are 21k homes connected who are beyond the 25Mbps threshold.

Yet elsewhere in the report is this quote:

At the end of Phase 2 there will be an estimated 41,500 premises still not able
to access broadband speeds of at least 25Mbps (of which 12,000 are
premises attached to cabinets that have already been fibred but the premises
concerned are beyond the critical distance of 1.2kms).

Only 12,000 properties?

What brings this figure down to 12k? It could be the use of FTTRN, but the report has already discounted that as "not yet known to be included in the project". It could be overlaying FTTP to some of these homes. Or it could be the effect of range improvements with vectoring.

It is a challenging area and hard to also track as EO cabinets are hard to discover and probably explains our difference in the figures.

It does look to be a problem. Magenta's codelook system seems to know how many cabs exist in an exchange, and how many EO bundles. Presumably an EO cab will have been created when you encounter a cabinet number that is not one of the existing ones ... but working out the EO bundle(s) it was created from must be harder...

The Airwave is interesting, but a risk of Airwave walking away if long term it does not look commercially viable is there.

As they're all pilot projects (including the other counties), you actually expect a few to come back as non-viable. I guess each county will want to try to make some of the new infrastructure long-lived, even if the project surrounding it becomes non-viable.

That 12,000 is the number in the final 41,500, so overall will be higher in the 2 to 24.9 Mbps region.

The EO and projects keep me working late into many evenings trying to keep track and be ready for the various announcements.

The council seems to have fixed their ailing server...

The "proper" link to the report can now be found as:
http://democracy.northyorks.gov.uk/FunctionsPage.asp...

The minutes from the meeting can be found as:
http://democracy.northyorks.gov.uk/FunctionsPage.asp...

The minutes give some additional colour to the meeting, compared with the plain text from the report. Given the draft status, the minutes do appear to make some mistakes (such as the implausible quote that phase 2 will be complete by Christmas 2014).

WWWombat

Thank you for posting the update on the links to the report and the minutes relating to the meeting.

The statement in the minutes that 'Phase 2 should be completed by Christmas 2014' made me laugh, but it is evidently a genuine error. If I understand the content of the report correctly, Phase 2 is scheduled to be completed by December 2016.

Edited by deleted (Fri 21-Nov-14 08:12:58)

WWWombat

Regarding the Airwave trial.

The Airwave trial locations in North Yorkshire are West Witton in Wensleydale, in the Yorkshire Dales and Egton, Egton Bridge and Glaisdale in Eskdale, on the North York Moors. Approximately 370 premises will be covered by the trial, with the trial running from next month until March 2016. These details, as well as other details, are in a DCMS/BDUK/Superfast Britain document dated 4 November 2014.

The link to the document is below, which might be a temporary link.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads...

The document does include some reasonably informative maps that indicate the areas to be covered by the trial and how they might fit in with those areas in Wensleydale and Eskdale that might be covered by Phases 1 and 2 of the Superfast North Yorkshire project.

Ta - that's good to know. I'll be following progress there...

WWWombat

Thank you for your input on the USC question. Invaluable.

I have now read the recent report in conjunction with the report which was presented to a meeting of the Executive held on 18 March 2014. Grim reading for anyone in rural North Yorkshire. Unless there is a significant change in circumstances, then it's reasonably clear that the USC is delayed until the end of 2016 and possibly beyond. Not good news.

Thanks again.

I agree.

If I were suffering 2Mbps speeds now, it would be enough to make me install satellite for a couple of years.

There's also a nationwide implication to this, if you add together the statements made...

North Yorkshire's "phase 2" has been delayed until the end of 2016, mostly because of a lack of resource to cover EO lines, lack of civil engineering resource, and a lack of FTTRN solution that is ready for primetime.

As a consequence, phase 3 (extending the target to 95%) is going to be hard-pushed to be done within the following year - 2017.

North Yorkshire is one of the pilot projects, yet is suffering this delay. It suggests that many other projects are about to be hit by similar problems - with similar delays to the end-result.

Altogether, it means we are unlikely to hit a target of 95% within 2017 *anywhere in the country* - and that's before any of the SEP projects have begun!

Will check figures after F1 but some areas are close now

Our estimates are usually slightly pessimistic so in terms of superfast I'd say

Enfield, Kingston Upon Thames, Havering, Oldham, Harrow<Barking and Dagenham, Luton are there now.

If we look at just fibre based (so reality is likely to be between the two then the list is longer
Bracknell Forest
Oldham
Isles of Scilly (yes jumped in after the cabs just went live)
Enfield
Havering
Kingston
Harrow
Barnet
Barking and Dagenham
Ealing
Luton
Surrey
Reading
Slough
Sutton

Some of these are just below 95% but the error margin means they are close enough to include.

WWWombat

On the balance of probability, I reckon you are right. Any county with rural areas similar to those in North Yorkshire is going to be facing the same problems. That does not make delays inevitable, but it does make them more likely.

If I understand the current situation correctly, Phase 1, will now be completed by March 2015 and will deliver 86% superfast broadband coverage with a subsidy of £177 per premise. Phase 2 (without FTTRN at the moment), will now be completed by the end of 2016 and will increase superfast coverage from 86% to 90% with a subsidy of £762 per premise.

The problem is Phase 3, which should extend superfast coverage to 95% by the end of 2017. On the one hand, North Yorkshire County Council takes the view that the only State Aid compliant NGA in rural North Yorkshire is provided by BT, but on the other hand, takes the view that BT does have the technology at an acceptable cost at this particular moment in time.

The example given in the report makes the current position clear, 'if the full remaining BDUK allocation was taken up' and 'committed to a Phase 3', with a subsidy of £1,750 per premise, 'it would secure superfast access to a further 3,800 premises', which would mean only extending superfast coverage from 90% to 91% by the end of 2017.

There is also the North Yorkshire County Council commitment to bring high quality broadband to 100% of North Yorkshire by the end of 2017. If Phase 3 could only extend superfast coverage to 91%, then that leaves 9% (37,700 premises) to be covered by high quality broadband by the end of 2017.

Thanks again for your help.

A minor update - 25/11/2014.

Having made a number of enquiries, I have been reliably informed that with Phase 1 of the superfast roll out due for completion by 31 March 2015, a reasonably accurate picture of the coverage for Phase 2 of the superfast roll out (without FTTRN at this moment in time) should have fully emerged by the middle of next year. Evidently, the situation is evolving and subject to change.

Regarding the 2Mbps Universal Service Commitment, I have been left with the impression that the resolution of this issue is not restricted to North Yorkshire.