Doesn't it just need Openreach to make ADSL more expensive than ADSL2+?
Technically, Openreach doesn't provide either ADSL or ADSL2+. BT Wholesale do, using their own DSLAMs hosted in the OR exchanges - as do various other operators like Talktalk, Sky etc.
These in turn buy the Metallic Path Facility (MPF) service from Openreach, which is just a copper local loop between the exchange and the premise. This is more generally known as Local Loop Unbundling (LLU).
So really, it's a question of Openreach increasing the price of the MPF service (which they'll be allowed to do once an exchange area becomes FTTP priority). And of course, BT Wholesale could at some point sunset their ADSL service, and the other operators could decide to remove their DSLAMs and MSANs.
If BT wants to exit the exchanges and stop paying the rental, then this will have to happen sooner or later, but there doesn't seem to be much of an urgent push yet: the original trial of ~100 exchange closures was reduced to just 3 or 5 (from memory). Apart from voice switchoff they'll also have to remove other things like leased line nodes, which could take years.
I think they're probably going to leave it to waste away naturally. In 10-15 years there may still be a few stragglers left on ADSL, but the numbers should be so small they can deal with them individually to "persuade" them to move. Similarly, the other operators will want to reduce their cost base over that period by removing their DSLAMs and MSANs, so have an incentive to migrate their own customers.
Over a similar time period, BT will be providing SOTAP for Analogue, using voice gateways in the exchange, to provide dialtone over copper to elderly people who want nothing more than to keep their existing voice phone. Since you won't be able to order this product for new provides or line takeovers - it's only for continuation of service to existing analogue phone customers - that problem will sort itself out naturally over time too.
There are a few places where FTTC performs worse than ADSL, due to the lengths of copper line, so those properties will have to be dealt with somehow - if they don't get FTTP then they may be offered 4G.
Edited by candlerb (Fri 15-Nov-24 10:57:12)