It is taken from BT published data.

In reply to a post by Bob_s2:

Q4 is the last quarter of the year. Oct to DEc

Q4 calendar year or financial year? Companies run different financial years. I assume Openreach use a UK tax year and so Q4 FY2012 would be Jan-Mar 2013.

Exactly.

Bob, your list is rubbish. Exmouth is on your list but is still in progress and coming soon. How did you generate this list?

You haven't included any of the exchanges that were scheduled for activation later on but which have been activated early.

For example my exchange, Pagham (SDPGHM), was scheduled for 31st March 2013 but went live in the first few days of Decemeber.

. . . and what about the ones, like Bracknell, that were scheduled for Dec 12, but actually went live in September?

And when was 105 ever less than 50% of 192?

I don't know why you have such a need to keep banging on about this.
You're facts always seem questionable, your maths is worse, and your anti-BT/OR prejudice is shameful.

The thing you seemingly fail to grasp is that the plan is just that. A plan.
You can't accurately plan for collapsed ducts or [censored] minded planners, and nobody expected such prolonged torrential rain.

We, the public, either get the list, which is BT/ORs aspiration, or we get nothing. The only other option would be an excessively pessimistic plan, which would end making it even slower.

There's no conspiracy. No fraud. No incompetence. It's just that stuff happens!

I think you need to be a little more pragmatic, accept the real world for what it is, and be a little patient.
. . . . and practice your maths.

Bob, BT Openreach announcing exchanges as accepting orders,( Actually Delivered )or not will fall into the bowels insignificance very quickly for most connected to some of these exchanges, as some FTTC cabs are enabled some 6-9-12mths after the exchange is announced as AO,& in some circumstances the FTTC cab is removed
So an exchange marked as AO is meaningless , to a hell of a lot of potential customers, It's when is my fttc cab going to be AO that we the customer really need to know, Mind you the majority of info released to the public from BTOR gives off a strong smell of excriment most of the time
But yeah it's not only at exchange level that they are failing to deliver on time, But @FFTC cab level is a lot worse ,which is the point that im trying to make here, wonder how many fftc cabs have been pushed back a further 6-12mths in the past 12mths?

Edited by tommy45 (Thu 20-Dec-12 21:30:32)

Really? Do you have a reference to this publication or is it just as fictional as the lists?

In reply to a post by Bob_s2:

Q4 is the last quarter of the year. Oct to DEc

You never let a lack of knowledge or facts get in the way of you pretending to know what your are talking about, do you?

In reference to www.btplc.com/Sharesandperformance/Quarterlyresults/Quarterlyresult...:

Fourth quarter and year to 31 March, 2012

So an exchange marked as AO is meaningless , to a hell of a lot of potential customers,

In one sense, tommy45, you'hit the nail on the head here... the number of exchanges "going AO" isn't very meaningful in the big picture. And you get the reason right too - it isn't meaningful for most people individually.

The *only* way it is useful is that it acts as a marker in a marketing sense - it is one of the few ways that the average Joe Public can relate to the telecoms infrastructure (ie the exchange name).

It doesn't help us understand how the project is doing in the grand scheme of things - which is about what number of lines could now choose to order SFBB if they wanted to. For this we want a single number (the number of properties passed) or, at a pinch, the number of cabinets converted.

However, you make the same mistake as Bob_s2 except, where Bob uses the number of exchanges in AO as his indicator, you use the number of delayed cabinets to pick fault with.

Unfortunately, the number of cabinets that have been delayed tells us nothing about the number that have been converted - For example, 10% being delayed looks bad alone, but if 20% extra were converted early then things look better.

Even worse, we are only going by anecdotal evidence on here - how many people have complained. We're too small a dataset to have any meaningful statistical significance.

The only number we've got with any reliability is the number of homes passed, compared with the target numbers. Here's what I can find for those numbers:

2010: July: 1.5 million premises passed, 100,000 per week
2010: October: 3 million premises passed

2011: April: 4 million homes passed, 10,000 cabinets, 400 exchanges
2011: May: Target is 6 million by end 2011
2011: May: Target is now 16 million by end 2015, to complete commercial rollout
2011: June: 5 million premises passed (11 million to go)
2011: June: Passing 80,000 properties per week
2011: October: 6 million homes passed (10 million to go)
2011: October: Target is 10 million by end 2012
2011: October: Target is 16 million, now by end 2014, to complete commercial rollout.

2012: February: 7 million passed (9 million to go)
2012: May: 10 million passed (6 million to go)
2012: September: 11 million passed (5 million to go)
2012: October: 12 million passed (4 million to go)
2012: October: Passing more than 1 million per quarter.
2012: October: Target is 16 million by spring 2014, to complete commercial rollout.
2012: October: Target is 19 million after the current BDUK contract wins, no date.
2012: November: Press releases now refer to 19 million as the "two-thirds" target.

Over the 12 months to October 2012, they went from 6 million lines to 12 million.

In the eighteen months to Spring 2014, if they replicate that rate of progress, they could reach 21 million lines - enough to cope with the commercial rollout (16m) and all the BDUK contracts so far (now more than 19m presumably). Another year, another 6m, would take us well over the BDUK target, and there'd still be a year left after that.

It does seem that they can easily maintain 1 million every quarter. At that rate, they'd be able to reach 25 million by the end of 2015.

One thing of note in the stats above was how things slowed in the Oct-Feb period, and how they accelerated in the Feb-May period. Does that suggest weather hold-ups?

I'm not convinced they can quite keep up the 6m/yr rate - we're getting into the harder rural areas after all. But I don't think that the evidence suggests that we should worry unduly - and that wild speculation about penalty clauses (latching onto one semi-plausible factor) is, right now, just that - wild.