why would BT change policy to do that when they already say tough luck to existing long FTTC lines?
To help them reach the target for the county? Re-arrangement might be expensive, but it might prove the cheapest way to hits the targets.
After all, Surrey has a BDUK target for SFBB of something like 99.5% - which almost certainly requires them to consider a solution for *all* long lines (both EO and PCP-based)
Other counties have targets that are not quite that high within the BDUK projects, but are at levels that imply long lines must be considered too. And a few counties have ongoing plans for 100% coverage in the 2017-2020 timeframe. Those too will need alternative solutions.
[Aside: We know little about the actual number of EO lines, and the actual number of long EO lines, and the actual number of long PCP lines. We've seen estimates of 10% EO, and 10% long PCP. If true, then any BDUK target > 80% must solve at least one of these problems, and any target > 90% must solve both, to some degree]
Looking at this from the opposite perspective... BT do show themselves (in video, and in press releases) to use the small ECI pole-mounted box. Where would they use this? It isn't going to be at the sites we see so far (ie at the PCP, which are too big), so it must be for some other purpose.
The usual "other purposes" would include FTTB for MDU, or being placed deeper in the network than the PCP - closer to a small cluster of properties that aren't well-served by a box at the PCP. That implies clusters of long-line properties, whether they are long EO or long PCP lines.
The question is why haven't they been used yet? We have yet to see a single picture of one in use. The answer is (probably) that there is little point until you are a long way through the standard rollout *and* with a fair take-up, so you can re-assess which locations require it.
And that answer effectively says why BT currently say "tough luck" to existing long FTTC (ie long PCP) lines.
I am just trying not to give the guy false hope, if he is sitting waiting for a FTTC solution on a long EO line I think he will be waiting a long time.
Absolutely - I'm trying to do a realistic assessment too. My conclusion is that you can't say "never", but you can't guarantee coverage either - and that whatever happens, it isn't going to be speedy.
EO lines seem to be at the back end of BDUK projects, so long EO (and long PCP) are at the back end of the back end - easily looking like 2016-2017.
Has there been any occurance of BT installing new cabs where non existed to shorten the FTTC distance, or is every FTTC cab installed next to existing cabs only. BT will look at this from a business point of view and nothing else, unless subsidised or political intervention.
The original expectation was that BT would place FTTC cabinets next to the PCP (primary) cabinets. Some lines have SCP (secondary) cabinets deeper in the network, but apparently not many, and none have seen FTTC cabinets before.
However, the Oxfordshire village that recently raised its own funds to get FTTC cabinets added (
Binfield Heath) seems to be getting 2 cabinets, one at each of 2 SCPs.
And in the recent
financial results, they indicate that the future includes G.fast, which is destined to work in FTTdp cabinets deeper in the network than the current PCPs. That implies that *all* the rules and assumptions we know now are to be torn up in 10 years (or so) anyway.
It is definitely a case of "never say never".
Finally, to a point you didn't quite make:
[BT] already say tough luck to existing long FTTC lines
They say "tough luck" right now, but that doesn't mean they have no hope either, even without recourse to network rearrangement.
There are two technology changes that can have an impact on long-line FTTC. Those are Vectoring and Bonding (on the FTTC cards, not a BET solution).
Vectoring looks like it has the realistic potential to increase the range of SFBB speeds by around 200-300 metres (eg 40Mbps at 1km), which reduces the need for physical intervention deeper in the network. While trials start this year, a rollout would only complete in 2017 - so it leaves BT in a quandary until that time.
Bonding has the potential to increase the range by 50% too - but at the cost of using extra pairs. The D-side appears to have more spare capacity than the E-side, and drops to the house usually have at least one spare pair, so this is possible for at least some properties.
With bonding only working with the addition of scarce resources, you only want to apply it to properties that have no other answer - so it would come after you have deployed vectoring. Then comes the balancing act - is the line part of a cluster where a small ECI cab would be better deployed? Or perhaps even FTTP? Or if there are a few spare pairs, then bond.