The checker is an estimate based on factors that only BT seem to know. In your case and based on your current line I would suspect the checker has got it wrong. Have any neighbours already got FTTC that you could check actual performance?
The checker is based on an Openreach system that I know the name of but can't put on here. It's basically a very accurate live map of the network, and it should know if there is copper or aluminium in the ground and what gauge the cable is. The speed estimate is to the DP only, so if the DP that serves you is out on a main road and you live on a farm half a mile away from it then the speed estimate will be too high.
Additionally over time it will change as there's an algorithm that also looks at existing FTTC lines on the DP and nearby DPs and assesses how they are performing.



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