I guess you are not in UK. If your country's ISPs are anything like ours then the
sync-time Target NM is almost invariably a multiple of 3dB, e.g. 6dB it looks like in your case. The sync speed for that connection session is determined by that
sync-time Target NM. What you seem to be forgetting is that by the time the modem has disconnected and reconnected, and you have had time to login to its GUI and view its stats the NM has moved on due to noise variation. In other words, all the NMs you are quoting are not the
sync-time Target NMs that gave rise to the sync-speeds you are seeing and so you can't relate them in the way you are attempting to.
You just can't be that precise!
All you say about bins, tones and powers is beyond me and I believe what you are asking calls for a deep theoretical thesis on DSL technology and I don't believe that this is the forum to supply that.
1999: Freeserve 48K Dial-Up => 2005: Wanadoo 1 Meg BB => 2007: Orange 2 Meg BB => 2008: Orange 8 Meg LLU => 2010: Orange 16 Meg LLU => 2011: Orange 20 Meg WBC