Basically I want to set a few of the 'supposedly' unneeded services to manual and then set up a monitor, and a couple of weeks down the line see if any have been started and why.
I can't say for certain about Vista, but in Windows 7 every time a service is started or stopped it records a 7036 event in the System Log.
There will be a lot of such events, but you could (hoping it's the same in Vista) create a custom view of the logs to display just those events then export the data to a text file (Save All Events As...) and search that for the services that interests you.