In reply to a post by Thaumaturge:

It looks very much as if OR have abandoned us here regarding fibre, and I should think we are firmly at the back of OR's queue now.

I did chuckle at your choice of wording, "abandoned" seems a bit heavy handed when you are talking about an ongoing rollout of full fibre.

In reply to a post by Thaumaturge:

My plan is to cease my existing copper line once I have an FTTP connection up and working OK. I had kind of hoped that OR would remove the copper cable at that point, but from what you are saying that's unlikely? It's overhead from a pole.

Typically (but not always) they will replace an existing overhead copper cable with a "hybrid" cable which contains both copper and fibre. If it's underground fed through a duct, you'll have both copper and fibre cables.

In reply to a post by Thaumaturge:

Is my assumption that eventually OR will build fibre everywhere correct?

That's the long-term aim, yes. By end of 2026, the expectation is that 80% of properties will have Openreach FTTP. However, getting to 99% or more will take considerably longer.

In reply to a post by Thaumaturge:

I imagine there's some Ofcom regulation that means they can't just pull the plug on folks who still have copper without providing some alternative, especially as the cohort is likely to contain older and vulnerable customers?

Removal of copper has a defined process. Roughly speaking, once an exchange area reaches 75% FTTP coverage, Openreach can start a "stop sell" on new copper connections to any property which has FTTP available. About a year later they can stop renewals of copper connections, and this will eventually force people onto FTTP - for those who can get it. But that doesn't mean they'll be ceasing copper services where FTTP is not available. They are likely to be in-filling for a long time.

In the long term, they'll have to do something about the last few remaining copper-only connections. (Note that by the end of 2025, this will be primary GEA FTTC - without voice from the telephone exchange. I am unclear as to when exactly exchange-based ADSL/MPF will be phased out)

In some areas Openreach may swallow the cost of upgrading to FTTP, perhaps with government handouts. In other areas they might move people onto something else like 4G/5G/6G. Over the next few years, the coverage of mobile networks to rural areas is going to improve substantially as the Shared Rural Network is rolled out.

At some point exchanged based xDSL will cease for same reasons the PSTN is being decommissioned soon. FTTC will still be with us in most places well into the next decade.
What I wonder about the altnets is their long term survivability. As long as they can get in before Openreach and the power of their numerous mainstream providers then they have a chance. Once OR move in then they look very vulnerable. Its got to be a certainty that many will not last out the decade, then what happens ? Could we see OFCOM/ government stepping in to keep their networks running until someone else buys them up or their customers are offloaded onto another network?

Edited by witchunt (Thu 09-Dec-21 20:32:11)

The closest historic parallel in this country was the consolidation of the cable networks a few decades ago.

History repeat?

The cable networks had hard duct and cable assets. In the wild west of the altnets, they have badly installed cables in someone elses duct that could end up being little more than a draw rope.

Edited by FibreBubble (Thu 09-Dec-21 20:58:16)

Have we reached peak bubble?

In reply to a post by dect:

I did chuckle at your choice of wording, "abandoned" seems a bit heavy handed when you are talking about an ongoing rollout of full fibre.

The comment was meant only with respect to OR. I understand that many don't have any prospect of FTTP at all yet.

I'll fess up - I don't want to go with an AltNet. AltNet land looks like the Wild West to me at present. Mark Jackson at ISPreview lists around 100 current companies here. For about half of them he notes their "ambitions". I added up the numbers quickly, comes to about 36.6M. That's only the ones with numbers quoted. Given that there are only 29M homes in the UK, and if we leave a few aside for OR and Virgin, you don't need to be Einstein to work out that some are going to be disappointed. The Equinox deal from OR isn't going to help. Many AltNets are going to go bust, and there is going to be massive "consolidation", as the finance people say, among the survivors. Quite what this shakedown will all mean for service and prices for ordinary punters is anyone's guess.

I'm an old man. I've been retired for 10 years. At my time of life I just want a peaceful, stable existence. Switching, having to bale yourself out of bankrupt companies, and continually looking for the best deals may be OK for you younger lads, but it's not for me. But then again, more or less anything has to be better than my present miserable FTTC line.

Why not take the positive view: if an Altnet comes along then enjoy the ride. The price will be cheap if they're trying to hoover up customers rapidly, and should they fail then someone else will take it over - or at very worst you'll be forced back to FTTC. You can't lose.

I'd say from personal experience that the current problems with electricity and gas supplier failures are being dealt with pretty well. Maybe you could have argued in the past that telecoms were less important than keeping your home warm, but that doesn't wash today now that people are being forced to work from home. And also, anyone who sweeps up the assets of a failed company is going to want to keep the customer base as well, which is probably worth more.

I've seen somewhere a photo of a new build that had a choice of full fibre/1Gig providers with their equipment under the stairs. literally had the ONT/modems for Virgin, Hyperoptic, Openreach FTTP and Gigaclear.

In reply to a post by Thaumaturge:

I'm an old man. I've been retired for 10 years. At my time of life I just want a peaceful, stable existence. Switching, having to bale yourself out of bankrupt companies, and continually looking for the best deals may be OK for you younger lads, but it's not for me.

I've been retired for quiet some time now myself, to be honest we do need the day to day challenges of life to keep the dementia away so an altnet might have hidden benefits for you

Edited by deleted (Sat 11-Dec-21 09:22:50)